Probably never. What makes and breaks a mobile platform is the app ecosystem. Nowadays Android phones are amazing, but many years ago, Windows Phones were far superior, IMO, but their lack of apps was the real killer. This was my personal experience. I switched from Windows Phone to Android, not because I preferred Android, but because I could do things on Android which I couldn’t on Windows. And, it wasn’t even the mainstream apps. It was the long tail. So, any European OS that doesn’t run the apps that people need, will struggle to succeed. Microsoft burned tons of cash trying exactly this and they failed.
I agree when you say that “native development is the way forward”, but I don’t agree with what it implies. Flutter apps are native apps. Their compilation results in binary code that is directly executable by the target platform without the need for an interpreter, a JIT runtime, anything. This is far more native than running Android apps through some compatibility layer.
Your comprehension about the limitations of the embedder is incorrect. Flutter’s greatest advantage is that while it gives developers a common development tool with a ton of code reuse, it is fairly easy to integrate with platform specific code. So, if there is a Jolla specific function not available in any other platform, any developer could simply write it in, C or C++ (or whichever language is supported in Jolla) and use platform channels to use it from Flutter. I know this because I’ve developed native code to be used from Flutter to add features not available in Flutter, but presented by the target OS (I’ve done this for iOS, for Android and even for Web).
Back again to the native argument, Flutter would be the swiftest way to get native apps into Jolla, leveraging existing investment, but keeping the options open to Jolla specific features.
Yet, I am not strongly advocating for Flutter (well, maybe a bit because of how enormous the existing code base is), but everything that I said is applicable to Kotlin CMP. The downside to CMP is that it is more recent. It has 2 upsides, however. One is that any Android app that was developed with Jetpack Compose would be a potential candidate to be ported to CMP with varying degrees of effort (I would expect a lot more than with Flutter, though). The other upside is that Kotlin CMP is developed by JetBrains, a European company, so politically, probably a more tenable option.
If you think that you will build a European ecosystem around QT that becomes more than a niche, you are dearly mistaken. It simply will not happen.