I dislike the Apple-/Google-duopoly-based attestation, chat control and similar things as much as many people here. However, I’m still not entirely sure what we are talking about in this thread, exactly - but I’m interested. My perspective is this:
Yes, there probably will be age verification or other drastic measures put in front of Instagram and the like - but those are huge, commercial platforms which have always had entry barriers and there will always be open alternatives or the option of just not using them. Yes, there might be barriers / chat control put in front of the big messengers - but again, those services always have had their barriers of entry and their dangers of data getting where it is not supposed to be (due to being based in the US, PRISM and whatnot - or simply due to Whatsapp hoovering up everybody’s adress books and doing god knows what whith that data, for example). However, there will always be options that don’t fall under the regulations for one reason or another.
It would be way more dangerous if, for example, you could not get a bank account, a drivers license, do your tax returns (or whatever other public service you can think of) without having a locked-down Google-/Apple-device. It’s a bit harder to deploy your own tax system compared to your own Mastodon instance or whatever - and your friendly neighborhood revenue authority is not going to like it either and will have words with you.
However, as far as I know, this just is not the case and will not be the case for a long time in Europe. For strictly public services, there will always be options - the states are not going to force granny/grandpa Luddite into buying a smartphone and getting an internet connection to renew their passport. I think in most (all?) European states, such services must be available in an offline fashion as well. You will be able to waltz into an office and throw some paper on a public servant’s desk for quite a while to come, I think.
Same for bank accounts: I don’t think there is a country in Europe where you cannot get a bank account that uses an authenticator device (that takes your bank card or visually scans a confirmation code), SMS 2FA or another non-phone-based authentication thing. Some banks may not offer that (especially the modern Fintech ones), but others do. In many countries, some of the banks are even mandated to do so because they have a legal responsibility to make a basic banking account available to everyone including non-standard cases like homeless people, for example.